All Eyes on Super Mario

Today promises to be eventful for markets, with key developments due in Europe and the US. The most influential, potentially, is the ECB policy meeting, with a few economists predicting a cut in the refinancing rate to a record low 0.25%, but most seeing no change after a close decision. The ECB discussed a rate cut at its recent meetings and its forward guidance underlines its current dovish stance. A rate cut today will not be a major surprise, but, on balance, we believe the ECB will choose to wait for more data and analysis.

The post meeting press conference as usual will  be the focus point as “Super Mario” will explain the thinking behind the decision.   In contrast to the ECB meeting, the outcome of today’s Bank of England meeting should be a major snoozeville with policy  expected to be left on hold and a press statement  unlikely. The MPC will have to hand its latest quarterly economic forecasts, but markets will have to wait until next week for the publication of the November Inflation Report.

The delayed first estimate of US Q3 GDP growth takes the spotlight later this afternoon.  This will provide a steer on growth ahead of the ‘shutdown’, but is unlikely to prompt much market reaction ahead of payrolls tomorrow.

About Hetal Patel - Chief Editor, Europe

Hetal Patel has written 58 post in this blog.

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