The Week Ahead 17th July


USD bulls waited, hoped and wished. They even prayed. All that was needed was a decent CPI. This along with the recent and decent GDP would have been enough. But no fairy tale and certainly no confidence later in the afternoon. CPI wasn’t truly awful – just a touch softer and core was actually in line. A few are blaming the miss on Retail Sales but that alone should not have made the extended moves we witnessed. In my view bum spending was the final straw to break the USD back. And back it broke. The main recipients were Cable, Aud and there was even a little love for EURUSD which at the time of writing is edging up to 1.1485. So where now ? Look for 1.1435 and more at 1.1385 for big buyers. 1.15 big fig is no longer a difficult

Cable look for 1.3050 to hold a little and more at 1.30 if this goes I like 1.29 big fig. Sorry but nothing else interests me as UK PM could be dead-woman walking if you believe the Telegraph.

AUD failed at .7835 after what seemed like an age of flirting. Not quite this time but lets see what happens in Asia.

USDJPY at 112.90 proved too much and I’m keen on selling rallies again. BUT 111.80 is very nice to buy

USDCAD can and will get sold again – I like 1.2740 but 1.2860 is massive. The only buy for me is 1.2865

NEXT WEEK – thoughts and things.

  • UK CPI, EUR ZEW, BOJ Rate decision, AUD Jobs, ECB Rate Decision
  • Stock earnings releases:
  • Monday: Charles Schwab Corp, BlackRock Inc, Netflix
    Tuesday: TD Ameritrade, Bank of America, J&J, UnitedHealth Group, IBM, Lockhead Martin, Goldman Sachs
    Wednesday: DISH Network, Morgan Stanley, Qualcomm,  American Express,  Unilever
    Thursday: eBay, E*TRADE,  Microsoft,  NCR Corp,  Phillip Morris International,  American Airlines
    Friday: GE,  Schlumberger,  Colgate-Palmolive,  Honeywell
  • Has the USD rout finished ? Lots of profit taking on Monday (apart from EURUSD)
  • BNP Fined $246MM After Its Traders Were Found To Still Use Chat Rooms To Rig FX Trading. See Zero Hedge for more.

·      When A “Black Swan” Will No Longer Do: China Warns Beware The “Gray Rhino” – More deleveraging from China may cause a highly probable high impact threats people should see coming but don’t.

That’s it and trade safe A and P

Screen Shot 2017-07-17 at 21.23.02 Screen Shot 2017-07-17 at 21.23.13 Screen Shot 2017-07-17 at 21.23.30 Screen Shot 2017-07-17 at 21.23.41

About Patrick Reid

Patrick Reid has written 23 post in this blog.

Patrick Reid is a veteran FX Trader and Analyst. He also has inroads to BBC News and has a great knowledge of Geopolitical landscape