The Week Ahead 9th July

RECAP LAST WEEK

Last week I mentioned USD bargain buyers needed to turn up and they did. In EURUSD we failed to successfully get above 1.1450 (Let’s not forget the key yearly levels we’ve been banging on about of 1.1435/65)

Fair valued quants stepped in – along with Cable at the 1.3050 area so expect these to be defended robustly again in the coming week. I remain a rally seller on both pairs.  

US NFP was a mixed bag with a beat on the headline, however wages a touch softer. Price action favoured USD – just about – especially at North American close. Chop ensued so thanks for that.

USDJPY was grinding all week – especially Friday but look for large sellers at 114.35. Unlikely but stops above of course.

EURGBP is flirting with .8850 which is big. I’m thinking USD bargain hunters will continue so I see little change on this pair. Unless politics rears it BREXIT head again. The UK PM needs another ace/joker in her pack (delete either word as you see fit) but I’m doubtful.

AUD and NZD chopped around then went lower but I see broad USD strength sending these lower still. Iron Ore and China will ping AUD around but you know this already and NZD looks tired. I like .7360 to sell into.

 

Next week

  • UK Average Earnings and MPC Broadbent speaks.
  • BOC rate decision
  • Yellen Testifies
  • All eyes on Friday for US CPI and Retail Sales. Last month was a miss and the market will no doubt be on tender hooks. A healthy GDP can only take USD so far. Be careful.

 

That’s it. Thanks again for your support. Catch Patrick Reid on Linked in with thoughts and more market news. Charts below as usual.

Screen Shot 2017-07-09 at 16.34.23 Screen Shot 2017-07-09 at 16.34.39 Screen Shot 2017-07-09 at 16.34.53 Screen Shot 2017-07-09 at 16.35.08 Screen Shot 2017-07-09 at 16.35.17 Screen Shot 2017-07-09 at 16.35.26

 

Patrick and Adam

 

About Patrick Reid

Patrick Reid has written 23 post in this blog.

Patrick Reid is a veteran FX Trader and Analyst. He also has inroads to BBC News and has a great knowledge of Geopolitical landscape

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